*****Very Important Conceptual Interpretation Information About The Wolfline™ Moneyline Products
While the perpetual purpose of all Wolfline™ alert dashboard and charting products is to isolate and alert the trader to the greatest probability of overextended or mispriced sports gaming markets based upon individual confidence intervals and risk tolerance, there is a distinct difference as to how the moneyline products are to be interpreted as opposed to the pointspread and over/under products. The pointspread and over/under markets are representative of a market pricing structure that makes each potential wager a 50/50 proposition for the bettor/trader (minus transaction cost/vig/juice/brokerage fee of course). So generally speaking, outside of slight distortions in the vig that generally fall “in between” numbers on the pointspread or total, a winning $100 bet will return a flat $100 and a losing $100 bet will lose $110. This is called a binary market and the “total” or “pointspread” is seen as a “barrier number” (strike price) that is either breeched or not, resulting in a straight “win” or “loss” depending on the particular side that the speculator was on. Moneyline wagers do not work this way as they are based on the markets expected “probability of frequency of occurrence” of an outright victory (or loss) by one particular side of a game/match/race. The concept of paramount concern when interpreting The Wolfline™ products for the moneyline market is THE MONEYLINE ALERT DASHBOARD AND CHARTING PRODUCTS ARE NOT TO BE USED TO DETERMINE THE PROBABILITY OF ONE SIDE OF THE SELECTED WAGERS VICTORY AND THE OTHER SIDE’S LOSS, THEY ARE TO BE USED TO DETERMINE THE PROBABILITY THAT THE MARKET HAS MISPRICED OR OVEREXTENDED THE EXPECTATION OF THE FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE OF ONE SIDE OF THE WAGER WINNING OUTRIGHT AND THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WAGER LOSING OUTRIGHT IF THE SAME FUNDAMENTAL SCENARIO WERE TO BE PLAYED OUT AN INFINITE NUMBER OF TIMES. For example, if the moneyline market on the Eagles/Steelers game is
-800/+600 in favor of the Steelers then “mid-market”/”fair value” market expectation of the frequency of the Eagles winning this game outright if it were to be played an infinite number of times under the exact same fundamental conditions would be once for every 7 that the Steelers would win (the 200 differential is the vig/juice/brokerage). If, in this example, there is significant Wolfline™ calculations, alerts and supporting chart data for the speculator to believe that a market mispricing, overextension or frequency of occurrence misrepresentation has occurred then the speculator believes, and will wager, that the ratio of Steelers wins to Eagles wins will be something other that 7:1 if the same game were played an infinite number of times (depending on which side is overvalued and which side is undervalued). Over the long run, finding these market mispricings and capitalizing on them is how VALUE is discovered in sports gaming markets (or any financial market) and VALUE is what leads to ultimate profit over loss. The Wolfline™ moneyline concepts and products also apply 100% to alternate moneylines such as the runline in baseball and the puckline in ice hockey. IT IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE OF THE THEORY AND APPLICATION OF THE WOLFLINE™ MONEYLINE TOOLS WHEN TRADING IN THE COLLEGIATE SPORTS MARKET WHERE SIGNIFICANT MIS-MATCHES AND EXTREMELY SKEWED EXPECTED PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE ARE SEEN VERY OFTEN!